Painting and varnishing trade: economic situation tense

While 41% of the 800 painting and decorating companies surveyed were still positive about the sales trend in the second half of 2025, this figure is only around 30% for 2026 according to the economic survey conducted by the German Paint, Design and Building Protection Association together with the opinion research institute Forsa. At the same time, the number of companies with negative sales and earnings expectations rose by between 11 and 13 percentage points. This development is also reflected in the order lead time. Since 2024, the time cushion in order books has remained at a consistently low level of around 11 weeks. In comparison: in 2023, this was still 14.3 weeks.

Difficult order situation in the private customer business

74% of the entrepreneurs surveyed cited the difficult order situation in the private customer business as the main reason for the negative outlook for the future. With an increase of seven percentage points, the subdued consumer and investment climate is at the top of the list of negative factors this year, followed by rising labor costs (73%). Inflation (53%) and the difficult economic and political conditions (51%) also continue to cause problems for the painting and decorating trade. In view of the global crises and conflicts, it is not surprising that companies are once again seeing particularly significant price increases of around 32% in fuel costs and an increase of 18% in operating and energy costs compared to previous years. These economic and business management challenges are hitting owner-managed micro and small businesses, which traditionally make up the painting and decorating trade, particularly hard. With a share of over 71 percent, private clients dominate the customer base of companies with fewer than four employees. If consumers' income, purchasing power and willingness to invest fall, this has a direct impact on order books. For example, the average order lead time for small businesses will be just 9.4 weeks in 2026.

Reluctance on the part of both private clients and industry

"We are currently noticing a clear reluctance on the part of both private clients and industry. Renovation measures that are not absolutely necessary are increasingly being postponed," explains Guido Müller, President of the Bundesverband Farbe Gestaltung Bautenschutz. "At the same time, we are being confronted with cost increases in all areas in a deteriorating consumer climate with greater price sensitivity among our customers. This makes long-term planning and solid calculations impossible and puts our businesses under pressure. What the skilled crafts sector in Germany needs now are well thought-out structural reforms and economic stability." In view of the current challenges, over 60% of businesses expect employment to remain unchanged this year. 17% of the entrepreneurs surveyed even expect employment to fall. In terms of their competitiveness, 61% of companies are facing challenges, but still feel that they are currently well positioned. However, almost a quarter are finding it difficult to assert themselves against their competitors or are struggling with a lack of orders and loss of market share. In the annual economic survey conducted by the Bundesverband Farbe Gestaltung Bautenschutz and the Fachberatungs- und Informationsstelle (FIS), Forsa has been surveying organized painting and varnishing companies in Germany since 2020 on current assessments, key data and trends relating to the economic situation and uses them to draw a picture of the mood in the industry. The full economic report can be downloaded from farbe.de.